Katsuma Hayashi

Assistant Professor, School of Public Health and Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University *Profile is at the time of the award.

2024Inamori Research GrantsBiology & Life sciences

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Research topics: Development of an infectious disease dynamic model incorporating location heterogeneity of outbreaks

Keyword

Summary: To deeply understand the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, it is essential to construct models considering heterogeneities such as age, geographic location, and immune status. The COVID-19 pandemic has reaffirmed the importance of incorporating such heterogeneities into models. In the early stages of the pandemic, Japan focused its countermeasures on clusters, targeting locations where group infections occurred. However, the extent to which this heterogeneity of infection sites influences disease transmission remains ambiguous. This research aims to integrate the heterogeneity of infection sites into models and evaluate its impact. Furthermore, the study will scrutinize the transmission mechanisms distinguishing COVID-19 from influenza, quantitatively elucidating the significance of including data on infection sites in future surveillance efforts for infectious diseases.

Message

The interdisciplinary network formed through the Inamori Research Grant will serve as a powerful tool in tackling increasingly complex social issues. From the perspective of infectious diseases mathematical models, I will dedicate myself to contributing to the advancement of science.

Outline of Research Achievments

In this study, the cluster outbreaks of COVID-19 were analyzed, the heterogeneity across different locations was quantified, and the impact of interventions at specific locations on the overall epidemic was examined. Using a causal discovery statistical model, the direction of causality between clusters was identified. Subsequently, assuming the direction of causality, the next-generation matrix based on the clusters was quantified. Regarding COVID-19, it was found that infections in settings involving dining and drinking occurred in the first half of each epidemic wave and drove the epidemic. The results suggested that strong interventions at specific locations could sometimes have an effect equivalent to uniform interventions across the entire population.

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